Suspension of FX weekly

I’ll be suspending the FX weekly posts indefinitely as I’ve been focusing on other asset classes and styles, and the commitment there is only going to increase.

The weekly opportunities haven’t been great of late as the EUR and GBP drifts without conviction, and so goes the AUD and NZD. The CHF is listless too. There may be some opportunities in the CAD. Bear in mind these are mid to long term opportunities I’m talking about – there’s still trades at the higher frequencies, but not suited for posts.

Finally, the USDJPY macro play is also called off, as the main reason for buying this pair (underpricing of expected and current rate differential) is now gone. The Fed is more willing than expected to lower an already low rate, just to keep the economy going the way it has been. If that is their stance, then the macro play is no longer worthwhile. It’s not completely bunk, but I am at least cutting most of my position.

FX Weekly – 2019 Week 22

Summary:

  • EURUSD ►aggressive longs can be taken into any overshot to the downside, but exit fast as the bottom is impossible to pick
  • GBPUSD ► ST buy can be made against current support / lows of 1.26 (see chart)
  • USDJPY ▲ next support at 108.50 to 108.30 zone - add to long term buy position here
  • USDCHF ► low confidence ST buy at trendline support
  • AUDUSD ► still drifting lower with no end in sight
  • USDCAD ▲ aggressive buy against support 1.34
  • NZDUSD ► good and conservative opportunities not available

Continue reading "FX Weekly – 2019 Week 22"

FX Weekly – 2019 Week 18

Summary:

Finally after few weeks of lull the markets have moved again. Be wary though as the momentum has just started, and so any reversal trades have to be closely watched.

  • EURUSD ►new lows made, and aggressive longs can be taken into any overshot to the downside, but exit fast as the bottom is impossible to pick
  • GBPUSD ► drifting lower in the absence of catalysts, but no medium term opportunities
  • USDJPY ▲ maintain long bias but be careful of stops this week as it is a week-long JPY holiday - that being said, any liquidity-driven spikes can be traded in the opposite direction (mean reversion)
  • USDCHF ► the move up was anticipated, and aggressive shorts can be placed at 1.03 levels
  • AUDUSD ► good and conservative opportunities not available - await formation of bottom
  • USDCAD ▲ look to buy on a small dip this week, but the RRR is not too good as the pair is in the upper range of the channel
  • NZDUSD ► good and conservative opportunities not available

Continue reading "FX Weekly – 2019 Week 18"

FX Weekly – 2019 Week 15

There are no good opportunities as of now - the market is a little too quiet. Bias remains the same as per 2 weeks ago.

Only exception is GBP being at support - can be a buy into the week ahead, but this is going against the main trend.

FX Weekly – 2019 Week 13

Summary:

Charts below now show aggressive entries, and stop levels in red

  • EURUSD ►last week's sell would be taken out if a hard SL was set - this week's aggressive entry is long against lows of 1.1170
  • GBPUSD ► opportunity to short, with possible stops indicated in red (see charts below)
  • USDJPY ▲ longs would have been taken out at BE at worst, but this week may be ok to go for a small long position
  • USDCHF ► look to long at trendline support (see chart below)
  • AUDUSD ► good and conservative opportunities not available - await formation of bottom
  • USDCAD ▲ look to sell if prices overextend to the upside
  • NZDUSD ► still in a LT range, so wait for 0.7150 for short opportunities

Continue reading "FX Weekly – 2019 Week 13"