I’ll be suspending the FX weekly posts indefinitely as I’ve been focusing on other asset classes and styles, and the commitment there is only going to increase.
The weekly opportunities haven’t been great of late as the EUR and GBP drifts without conviction, and so goes the AUD and NZD. The CHF is listless too. There may be some opportunities in the CAD. Bear in mind these are mid to long term opportunities I’m talking about – there’s still trades at the higher frequencies, but not suited for posts.
Finally, the USDJPY macro play is also called off, as the main reason for buying this pair (underpricing of expected and current rate differential) is now gone. The Fed is more willing than expected to lower an already low rate, just to keep the economy going the way it has been. If that is their stance, then the macro play is no longer worthwhile. It’s not completely bunk, but I am at least cutting most of my position.