Scenario analysis using market capitalization
* Assumption of supply slightly increasing:
ETH +10 mil per year
XRP +5,000 mil per year
|Historical||Market cap (m)||Supply (m)||Price|
|BTC peak cap||320000||16||20000.00|
|ETH peak cap||135000||100||1350.00|
|XRP peak cap||150000||38740||3.87|
|Scenario A||Market cap (m)||Supply (m)||High|
|Scenario B||Market cap (m)||Supply (m)||Mid|
|Scenario C||Market cap (m)||Supply (m)||Low|
Scenario A - the prices of ETH and XRP if they reach the market cap of Bitcoin at its peak. This is a ceiling estimate, since it's currently not likely that massive amounts of new funds come into this space. Likely there will be some cannibalization into Bitcoin.
Scenario B - an arbitrary market cap of 100,000 million, the lower end of the average scenario if the crypto market spreads out evenly, divesting from Bitcoin the most, and some flows going into the other altcoins not mentioned here.
Scenario C - an arbitrary market cap of 50,000 million, lower than current market cap, a bearish scenario.
I use market capitalization to estimate fund flows, though it must be noted that it is not a 1-to-1 relation - (FF x Liquidity Factor = change in Market Cap) - where liquidity factor is a measure of the unwillingness of buyers or sellers to put their coins up for trade - the more unwilling they are, the more fund flows will affect prices and thus market cap.
Increase of supply is estimated by simple linear extrapolation of implied circulating supply, derived from (market cap / closing price).