FX Weekly – 2019 Week 22

Summary:

  • EURUSD ►aggressive longs can be taken into any overshot to the downside, but exit fast as the bottom is impossible to pick
  • GBPUSD ► ST buy can be made against current support / lows of 1.26 (see chart)
  • USDJPY ▲ next support at 108.50 to 108.30 zone - add to long term buy position here
  • USDCHF ► low confidence ST buy at trendline support
  • AUDUSD ► still drifting lower with no end in sight
  • USDCAD ▲ aggressive buy against support 1.34
  • NZDUSD ► good and conservative opportunities not available

Continue reading "FX Weekly – 2019 Week 22"

Drawdowns in History

S&P 500 drawdowns from 1950 to 2019-04
Red = On the way down, Yellow = Recovering from trough, Cyan = No -10% drawdown

 

 

We focus on the drawdowns exceeding -10% - giving us a sample size of 23.

A simple average would indicate that such drawdowns occur on average every 3.04 years.

The average time between such occurrences (from the end of one to the start of another) is 452 days.

Start End Duration (Days) Nadir (Lowest Point) Date of Nadir
13/6/1950 22/9/1950 101 -14.02% 17/7/1950
6/1/1953 11/3/1954 429 -14.82% 14/9/1953
26/9/1955 14/11/1955 49 -10.59% 11/10/1955
6/8/1956 24/9/1958 779 -21.47% 22/10/1957
4/8/1959 27/1/1961 542 -14.02% 25/10/1960
13/12/1961 3/9/1963 629 -27.97% 26/6/1962
10/2/1966 4/5/1967 448 -22.18% 7/10/1966
26/9/1967 29/4/1968 216 -10.11% 5/3/1968
2/12/1968 6/3/1972 1190 -36.06% 26/5/1970
12/1/1973 17/7/1980 2743 -48.20% 3/10/1974
1/12/1980 3/11/1982 702 -27.11% 12/8/1982
11/10/1983 21/1/1985 468 -14.38% 24/7/1984
26/8/1987 26/7/1989 700 -33.51% 4/12/1987
10/10/1989 29/5/1990 231 -10.23% 30/1/1990
17/7/1990 13/2/1991 211 -19.92% 11/10/1990
8/10/1997 5/12/1997 58 -10.80% 27/10/1997
20/7/1998 23/11/1998 126 -19.34% 31/8/1998
19/7/1999 16/11/1999 120 -12.08% 15/10/1999
27/3/2000 30/5/2007 2620 -49.15% 9/10/2002
10/10/2007 28/3/2013 1996 -56.78% 9/3/2009
22/5/2015 11/7/2016 416 -14.16% 11/2/2016
29/1/2018 24/8/2018 207 -10.16% 8/2/2018
21/9/2018 23/4/2019 214 -19.78% 24/12/2018

 

Continue reading "Drawdowns in History"

FX Weekly – 2019 Week 18

Summary:

Finally after few weeks of lull the markets have moved again. Be wary though as the momentum has just started, and so any reversal trades have to be closely watched.

  • EURUSD ►new lows made, and aggressive longs can be taken into any overshot to the downside, but exit fast as the bottom is impossible to pick
  • GBPUSD ► drifting lower in the absence of catalysts, but no medium term opportunities
  • USDJPY ▲ maintain long bias but be careful of stops this week as it is a week-long JPY holiday - that being said, any liquidity-driven spikes can be traded in the opposite direction (mean reversion)
  • USDCHF ► the move up was anticipated, and aggressive shorts can be placed at 1.03 levels
  • AUDUSD ► good and conservative opportunities not available - await formation of bottom
  • USDCAD ▲ look to buy on a small dip this week, but the RRR is not too good as the pair is in the upper range of the channel
  • NZDUSD ► good and conservative opportunities not available

Continue reading "FX Weekly – 2019 Week 18"

FX Weekly – 2019 Week 15

There are no good opportunities as of now - the market is a little too quiet. Bias remains the same as per 2 weeks ago.

Only exception is GBP being at support - can be a buy into the week ahead, but this is going against the main trend.

FX Weekly – 2019 Week 13

Summary:

Charts below now show aggressive entries, and stop levels in red

  • EURUSD ►last week's sell would be taken out if a hard SL was set - this week's aggressive entry is long against lows of 1.1170
  • GBPUSD ► opportunity to short, with possible stops indicated in red (see charts below)
  • USDJPY ▲ longs would have been taken out at BE at worst, but this week may be ok to go for a small long position
  • USDCHF ► look to long at trendline support (see chart below)
  • AUDUSD ► good and conservative opportunities not available - await formation of bottom
  • USDCAD ▲ look to sell if prices overextend to the upside
  • NZDUSD ► still in a LT range, so wait for 0.7150 for short opportunities

Continue reading "FX Weekly – 2019 Week 13"